Bill Belichick, Nick Saban, Pete Carroll
Just as legendary coaches Nick Saban, Bill Belichick, and Pete Carroll eventually stepped down from dominant careers defining their era, the U.S. dollar's longstanding dominance is coming closer to its end.
The dollar has enjoyed an unprecedented run setting monetary policy worldwide. But no dynasty lasts forever, whether in college football or global finance. Iconic coaches and currencies all have their closing act. Every juggernaut is beatable and traditional primacy cannot last forever.
Decoding Bitcoin's Dance: The Three Phases of Market Bull run
In the fascinating world of technical analysis, there's a compelling macro pattern that has persistently manifested throughout various cycles. It begins with the formation of a low, setting the stage for a structured journey encompassing three distinct phases. Phase 1 involves the construction of market structure on top of the resistance level, establishing a foundation for the next phase. Interestingly, Phase 1 unfolds in a sideways movement for 28 weeks. Phase 2 then takes the reins, building upon the structure created in Phase 1 while introducing a critical retest of its base, which coincides with the top of Phase 1. Phase 2 ranges between 25 to 31 weeks. During 2019-2020 cycle, Bitcoin deviated from the norm, forming a singular range that endured for an extended 75 weeks. However, it's crucial to note that this anomaly occurred during the unprecedented challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Considering this historical context, we are currently in Phase 2 of Bitcoin's cycle, which began by the end of October 2023. If history repeats, this phase may last between 25 to 45 weeks were the market would be ranging between $30k & $49k. The end of Phase 2 would signal the start of Phase 3, bringing the much-anticipated parabolic move that could lead to a new all-time high.
ETF Euphoria Interrupted: Bitcoin's Rebound & the Market's Unease
Despite the anticipation surrounding the imminent news of ETF approval, Bitcoin faced resistance within this critical zone, resulting in a rebound rather than a breakthrough. This unexpected turn adds an extra layer of uncertainty to the market, leaving investors on the edge as they gauge how Bitcoin's price will move in the near future.
Chart Dynamics: Bitcoin's Retreat to 41.5K Validates Bearish Signals
Building upon our observations from last week, it's worth noting that the anticipated bearish divergence has indeed played out in the market. Bitcoin experienced a pullback, retracing to the $41.5K level.
Bitcoin Market Cap
Disclaimer: The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments.